What Happens to the Internet When Mobile Providers Go Down (2024)

You may have experienced the panic that happens when you realize you can’t get a connection on your phone. Most of us in these moments will try several ways of getting online before rushing to Downdetector^® to see if our mobile operator is out of service or if it’s just us. Having access to data from both Downdetector and Speedtest^® gives us unique insight into how network outages impact the internet as a whole, and in this article we’re exploring that impact in several key markets around the world.

The outages we explored

We looked specifically for recent outages that affected mobile networks in a variety of countries around the globe. The outages we explored were in Brazil (Vivo — 12,994 reports on August 22), Canada (Rogers and Freedom Mobile — 35,685 reports July 7-8), Italy (Iliad — 3,018 reports on June 21), India (Vodafone-Idea — 1,386 reports on July 17), the Netherlands (KPN Mobile, T-Mobile and Vodafone — 92,391 reports on June 24), Sweden (Tele2 — 7,275 reports June 17-19) and the United States (T-Mobile — 95,267 reports on September 6).

Working hypotheses

We had three hypotheses when we set out to do this analysis based on what we would expect to happen in a prolonged, near-total mobile outage:

1. Mobile speeds would increase during an outage (for those who could connect) because there would be significantly less network congestion.
2. Fixed broadband speeds would not change during an outage.
3. The number of mobile Speedtest results would increase on the day of the outage as users tried to troubleshoot their connections.
4. The number of fixed broadband Speedtest results would also increase on the day of the outage as people switched from mobile to fixed broadband to try and connect.

As with any real-world experiment there are many variables that can affect the results but for which we cannot control. Each of these outages varied in duration, cause and totality — factors which affect potential outcomes.

Mobile Outages Affect Download Speed in Different Ways

We compared each operator’s mean download speed over mobile on the day of the outage with their mean speed during that month to see if our hypothesis held. Results were mixed.

In India and the U.S., mobile download speeds did increase very slightly for each provider on the day of the outage when compared with the monthly average. Both of these outages were localized within the country with the Indian outage centering around Ahmedabad and the U.S. outage falling on the East Coast.

On the other hand, mobile download speeds in Brazil and Italy were lower on the day of the outage than the monthly average. Significantly so in Italy. In both of these instances the mobile operator was experiencing a geographically widespread outage.

The outage in Canada revealed two different stories as download speed decreased slightly during the outage for Rogers customers and increased for customers of Freedom Mobile. Results were also mixed in the Netherlands with Vodafone customers seeing a significantly higher download speed, KPN Mobile customers seeing a slightly higher speed and T-Mobile customers seeing a decrease in download speed.

The outage in Sweden occurred in three waves over three separate days:

We looked at each separately and found that mobile download speed on Tele2 increased during the smaller first and last waves. Meanwhile, mean download speed decreased during the largest middle outage.

Fixed broadband speeds show only slight variations

We measured download speed over fixed broadband at the country level both on the day(s) of the outages and compared that number with the average download speed for the appropriate month.

Our hypothesis about fixed speeds not changing during mobile outages proved mostly true. Although download speed over fixed broadband did decrease in Italy and the Netherlands during their country-wide outages, the decrease was very small. In Canada there was virtually no difference in speed between the day of the outage and the monthly average.

Download speed over fixed broadband was faster during the outages in all other countries we examined. However, the differences were not large enough to rule out day-to-day fluctuations in speed.

Speedtest results usually increase during outages

We also compared the number of Speedtest results over both mobile and fixed broadband during the outages with the daily averages in each country for the appropriate month.

Our hypothesis that the number of mobile Speedtest results would increase on the day of an outage held mostly true. Exceptions were Canada and two days of the Swedish outage. Fixed broadband Speedtest results also mostly increased, except in Canada and the Netherlands, but for the most part only very minimally.

Contact us to learn how data from Downdetector and Speedtest can help you before, during and after an outage.

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