The Mets need another starting pitcher. Ahead of the trade deadline, who fits and at what cost? (2024)

The morning after the team allows 20 runs is always a good time to talk about pitching.

Wednesday night’s melee aside, pitching has been the Mets’ primary strength in 2021. New York has been led by Jacob deGrom, Marcus Stroman and Taijuan Walker in the starting rotation, and its bullpen has been markedly improved over the last several years.

And yet, even with a slumbering offense, the pitching staff is going to be the Mets’ top priority ahead of the trade deadline. Acting general manager Zack Scott has said as much on multiple occasions. New York is 29-14 when deGrom, Stroman or Walker start; it’s 12-21 otherwise. Joey Lucchesi is out for the season. David Peterson remains inconsistent, as Wednesday showed, and he left the game with right side soreness. Tylor Megill has impressed in a pair of relatively brief starts.

The Mets have Carlos Carrasco and Noah Syndergaard as potential rotation additions in the second half, but given the amount of time both right-handers have missed, it’s hard to bank on them pitching up to their career track records down the stretch.

And so the biggest possible upgrade the Mets can make likely resides in the rotation. As the calendar turns to July, whom might New York target, and what might the acquisition cost be? With the help of my colleagues at The Athletic in different cities, I put together a list of potential candidates for the Mets to target and what a trade could look like.

José Berríos

Resume
Career: 55-40, 4.10 ERA
2021: 7-2, 3.41 ERA, 89 2/3 IP, 26.5 percent strikeout rate

Contract Situation
2021: $6.1 million
2022: Arbitration
2023: Free agent

Fit
Now that the Nationals are back in contention and Max Scherzer is almost certainly staying put, Berríos figures to be the best pitcher available at this trade deadline. He’d be a right-handed starter on par with Stroman and Walker for New York, just as equipped to start a postseason game should the Mets get there.

New York could view his acquisition similar to its deal for Stroman in 2019 — as an early way of replacing one of their impending free agents (perhaps, ironically, Stroman himself this time). That Stroman’s contributions helped the Mets get back into a playoff race in 2019 was unexpected at the time of that deal; however, the right-now impact of adding Berríos would be the driving force this time.

Negatives
All of those above nice things about Berríos mean he’s also going to cost a fair amount — likely more than the package the Mets gave up for Stroman two years back. (That was Anthony Kay, a near-ready starting pitching prospect on the outskirts of top-100 prospect rankings, and Simeon Woods-Richardson, a recent second-round pick who was further away but with a higher ceiling.)

New York has moved a lot of its higher-impact minor-league talent in the last four years in the trades for Robinson Canó and Edwin Díaz, for Stroman and for Francisco Lindor and Carrasco.

An Expert’s Take, with Dan Hayes of The Athletic

Would the Twins actually trade him?

Hayes: Whether the Twins could or should part with Berríos is complex enough that I just wrote 1,200 words on the topic. As complicated as it is, there is room for a trade if it’s the right deal.

What would they be looking for in return?

Hayes: The Mets are well-versed in what it takes to add a big-name pitcher at the deadline after dealing for Stroman two years ago. Think that deal, but bigger. As great as Stroman was pitching at the time, Berríos is averaging 2 1/2 more strikeouts per nine than Stroman was when New York parted with Kay and Woods-Richardson to complete the trade. The Twins are still interested in competing next season, which means they’d need to get a young pitcher back to help them in 2022.

In Mets’ Terms …
The Mets don’t line up great with the Twins because they lack near-ready premium prospects and premium pitching prospects. If Minnesota prioritizes replacing Berríos in the rotation quickly, New York is going to need to include Peterson, Megill or Thomas Szapucki as part of the deal, which already negates some of the benefit of adding Berríos. The second, more prominent piece would have to be a higher-ceiling prospect like J.T. Ginn.

The Final Word
This is a weird instance where the Mets’ newfound financial flexibility probably makes them less likely to make a big splash here. Under the prior ownership and front office, using prospect capital to acquire relatively inexpensive and controllable major-league talent was a clear priority; it’s why the Mets’ system is shallower now than it could be. These days, New York shouldn’t have to fret about replacing its impending free agents in the rotation via the trade market; it could just work hard to re-sign them. The Twins would probably need to be bowled over to trade Berríos, and the Mets don’t need him enough to overpay that way.

Kyle Gibson

Resume
Career: 75-74, 4.38 ERA
2021: 6-0, 2.00 ERA, 90 IP, 20.9 percent strikeout rate

Contract Situation
2021: $9.67 million
2022: $7.67 million
2023: Free agent

Fit
Gibson doesn’t have Berríos’ talent, but he is having the best season of any pitcher who might be moved at the deadline. He didn’t survive the first inning of his Opening Day start, but he’s pitched into the sixth each time since, and his ERA is 1.51 since that opening frame of the year. If you think he’s been taking advantage of a pitcher’s park in Arlington, his road ERA is 0.45 since the first inning of that first start.

Even if Gibson isn’t quite this good all season long, he’s remarkably reliable. Only three pitchers have started more games over the last eight years than Gibson (Scherzer, Zack Greinke and Jon Lester), and that’s more valuable than ever this season.

Negatives
Gibson probably won’t be this good all season long, but the Rangers are going to value him as if he is. The right-hander is a year removed from an ERA over 5.00, and his peripherals this season aren’t so much better to expect another year and a half of this level of production.

An Expert’s Take (and Some Repartee!), with Levi Weaver of The Athletic

Would the Rangers actually trade him?

Weaver: Yes. The Rangers are certainly going to listen on Kyle Gibson. He’s having a career year, is affordable, and has another year left on his contract. If Texas is looking at 2023 as its first real year of contention, it makes sense to capitalize on those three factors and load up for the future.

What would they be looking for in return?

Weaver: With 2023 as the opening to that window, it makes more sense for Texas to try to acquire guys who will be in the big leagues by then so … what would Texas have to add to the package to get J.T. Ginn and Khalil Lee?

Britton: [after mumbling something about how that Joey Gallo guy would work] I’m not saying a Gibson and Ian Kennedy package for Ginn and Lee would be unfair; I just don’t think it’s something the Mets would be all that interested in pursuing. That’s two top-10 prospects in a system that runs … not that far beyond 10. Trade out Ginn for Megill — his first two starts have been encouraging — or Lee for someone further from the majors or at a position where the Mets don’t have a likely need themselves in 2022, and this could work better.

Weaver: I could go Lee/Megill for Gibson/Kennedy, I think, but let me throw one more Hail Mary: Would Gibson/Kennedy/Brock Holt get me Ginn/Lee?

Britton: We chatted about Holt back when the Mets were desperate for position players, but that need has abated with the returns of Michael Conforto and Jeff McNeil off the IL and with Brandon Nimmo and J.D. Davis scheduled to follow soon. So there isn’t much need and maybe even want for Holt right now, and certainly not enough to upgrade the package here.

Weaver: Very well, I will table your offer as a fallback plan, though I imagine the Cardinals will outbid you.

The Final Word
I don’t think the Mets would feel very good about giving up Lee and Megill for Gibson and Kennedy, and I think Levi is right that Texas may be able to fetch even more than that. For those reasons, I think New York will look elsewhere.

Jon Gray

Resume
Career: 49-43, 4.53 ERA
2021: 4-6, 3.97 ERA, 68 IP, 20.7 percent strikeout rate

Contract Situation
2021: $6 million
2022: Free agent

Fit
Gray is the first rental on this list, and that probably fits the Mets’ idea on price better than someone with multiple years of team control. He could theoretically bring stability through the regular season and potentially start a Game 4 in the postseason if neither Carrasco nor Syndergaard is up to the task. He’s been a good pitcher in Colorado with the chance he blossoms more fully away from the unique pressures of Coors Field, and he’s succeeded this year by getting back to being a terrific ground-ball pitcher.

Negatives
Gray recently missed time with a flexor strain in his right elbow, which undercuts the sense of stability he could provide in the season’s second half. He also missed some time last year with a shoulder injury and he fractured his foot in both 2017 and 2019. He’s also excelled at Coors Field throughout his career, with a better ERA there than on the road, with a more pronounced split (3.25 ERA at home, 5.32 on the road) this season.

An Expert’s Take, with Nick Groke of The Athletic

Would the Rockies actually trade him?

Groke: Absolutely, although there is some hesitance. The Rockies aren’t in a position to casually let go of pitching, especially a pitcher who’s done so well at Coors Field in his career. But Gray will command a good contract in free agency this winter and that timing doesn’t jive with a rebuilding team.

What would they be looking for in return?

Groke: They always, always want pitching in return because chasing them in free agency requires a “Coors Field Tax” that isn’t really worth it. But there are so many holes in the Rockies’ roster right now, they should be open to just about anything. Especially, though, they need a catcher, center fielder and a shortstop, probably in the prospect variety.

In Mets’ Terms …
The Rockies may finally be embarking on the rebuild they’ve been ignoring for more than a calendar year, and thus they are easier for the Mets to match with than other teams more intent on competing as soon as next season. Given that Gray is a rental, New York shouldn’t have to deal any of its frontline prospects here, and a match probably comes down to finding two prospects in the 10 to 25 range that Colorado likes.

The Final Word
Gray sticks out to me as the likeliest choice on this board. He’s a good mid-rotation starter who shouldn’t cost too much for the Mets to acquire.

Caleb Smith

Resume
Career: 17-22, 4.26 ERA
2021: 2-4, 3.08 ERA, 64 1/3 IP, 26.9 percent strikeout rate

Contract Situation
2021: $1.465 million
2022: Arbitration
2023: Arbitration
2024: Free agent

Fit
The Mets know Smith well from his days in Miami, and he looked like he’d be a hot trade commodity in 2019. He moved to Arizona in last year’s Starling Marte trade, and after spending the first part of this season in the bullpen has done quite well back in his familiar role as a starter.

The 29-year-old has the most amount of team control remaining; the Mets could acquire him to be a part of not only this year’s rotation but also for the next two full seasons. His experience in the bullpen — and not just as a longman — means he could remain a useful piece even if Carrasco and Syndergaard both return.

Negatives
Because of the team control remaining for Smith, the Mets would probably have to surrender the type of talent they could use to acquire a better pitcher for a shorter period of time.

An Expert’s Take, with Zach Buchanan of The Athletic

Would the Diamondbacks actually trade him?

Buchanan: The Diamondbacks are in a tough spot. Smith has undeniable trade value, given his 3.08 ERA and two remaining years of control. But the Diamondbacks also need to be able to get through the rest of the season. For two months, they’ve been frantically turning the Rubik’s Cube of their pitching depth, desperately hoping they’ll wind up with the right colors on the right sides. It hasn’t worked. If the rotation is in a more stable place at the end of July — Madison Bumgarner and Taylor Widener could be back by then — it might free up the Diamondbacks a bit.

What would they be looking for in return?

Buchanan:The Diamondbacks probably aren’t in a position to reject any offer that substantially improves the talent in the organization, but they’ve generally favored packages of players who are major-league ready or at least close to it. A similar deal last year, the Starling Marte trade, brought them Smith in the first place. But an overwhelming prospect offer probably does the job, too, provided the Diamondbacks feel like they can get by in the rotation for the rest of the year — and next year, too.

In Mets’ Terms …
If the Diamondbacks are dealing Smith with his years of control remaining, it probably means they’re thinking of a larger rebuild than they’ve been inclined to embrace under the current front office — which means Ketel Marte and Carson Kelly might be on the block, as well, and Arizona would be seeking higher-impact talent further away from the majors.

Smith would probably require one uncomfortably big piece from the Mets or perhaps a trio of smaller ones — maybe two in the 10 to 15 range of New York’s prospect board and another around 25, depending on whom the Diamondbacks like. You can imagine something like Megill, Jaylen Palmer and maybe one of the Mets’ younger pitchers signed internationally, like Junior Santos or Robert Dominguez.

The Final Word
As mentioned in the Berríos analysis, team control probably won’t factor in as much with this front office as with the previous one, and I don’t expect the Mets to pay more in prospect cost to secure it. As a pitcher, Smith might be as good a fit as anyone on this list below Berríos, but I think the Diamondbacks will justifiably want too much to make it worthwhile for New York.

Michael Pineda

Resume
Career: 56-50, 4.00 ERA
2021: 3-4, 3.70 ERA, 56 IP, 22.1 percent strikeout rate

Contract Situation
2021: $10 million
2022: Free agent

Fit
A rental like Gray, Pineda has been a consistently effective mid-rotation starter for the Twins since coming back from his 2018 Tommy John surgery. He’s rarely dominant, but he almost never gets shelled, and he keeps his team in the game into the sixth inning or so. He’s 32 now, so you more or less know what you’re getting.

Negatives
Like Gray, Pineda has also experienced forearm tightness, though his dates to being struck by a comebacker. He was memorably suspended for using pine tar while with the Yankees and was also suspended for 60 games in 2019 for testing positive for a performance-enhancing masking agent. And because you more or less know what you’re getting, there’s not that hint of upside that would accompany taking Gray out of altitude.

An Expert’s Take, back with Dan Hayes of The Athletic

Would the Twins actually trade him?

Hayes: Yes.

What would they be looking for in return?

Hayes:He’s a rental, which means the price would be much more reasonable than Berríos. And he’s nearing the end of a stint on the injured list. The great news for the Twins is Pineda is making a rehab start on Thursday after experiencing forearm tightness earlier in June related to taking a comebacker off his arm on May 26 versus Baltimore. If Pineda starts to regain the form he showed prior to the injury — a six-inning pitcher with a 2.62 ERA and 9.5 strikeouts per nine — the price would definitely increase. He’s been outstanding when it has counted for the Twins the previous two seasons, pitching very well in five starts down the stretch after serving a 60-game suspension. Following a slow start in 2019, Pineda also pitched extremely well from June into September.

In Mets’ Terms …
Unlike the Rockies, the Twins would be looking for someone closer to making a big-league impact in a Pineda deal, which, as mentioned above with Berríos, makes the Mets an imperfect fit. Megill might be enough to get it done.

The Final Word
The Mets seem likelier to be in the rental market for a starter, and there’s not a whole lot of daylight between Gray and Pineda. Which pitcher New York prioritizes could come down to price and how the different organizations value the Mets’ minor-league system.

Merrill Kelly

Resume
Career: 20-23, 4.32 ERA
2021: 4-7, 4.73 ERA, 91 1/3 IP, 21.2 percent strikeout rate

Contract Situation
2021: $4.25 million
2022: $5.25 million club option

Fit
Kelly is the least exciting of these choices, given his pedestrian numbers both this season and in his brief big-league career with the Diamondbacks. That said, he’s made each of his turns for Arizona this season, and a Mets team that has some potential high-end returnees off the injured list doesn’t need big impact as much as back-end stability.

Negatives
You can question whether Kelly would represent a big enough upgrade over New York’s current options to merit a trade, especially if the Diamondbacks value his extra year of control via the club option.

An Expert’s Take, back with Zach Buchanan of The Athletic

Would the Diamondbacks actually trade him?

Buchanan: For the same reasons listed above with Caleb Smith, the Diamondbacks probably can’t jump on a Merrill Kelly deal right now. Remove the most reliable rotation option — the only guy who has made every start this year — and the rest of this season could get dangerous for the many young, possibly unready-for-the-big-leagues pitchers who would have to fill in. But there’s a price for everything.

What would they be looking for in return?

Buchanan:Given Kelly’s cheap extra year of control — he has a $5.25 million team option for 2022 — it’d take more than a lottery ticket to pry him away. The Diamondbacks value his ability to eat innings, too, and might want him in their rotation next year. He probably would cost a team less to get than Smith would, but the package would have to convince the Diamondbacks to weaken themselves in an already weak rotation for the rest of this year and all of 2022.

In Mets’ Terms …
Unlike with Smith, a Kelly trade wouldn’t signal a wholesale rebuild for Arizona, and thus the Diamondbacks would probably be looking for talent nearer to the major leagues for him. Szapucki is too big a prospect to move for a year and a half of the right-hander, and Megill might be as good as Kelly in the majors right now. Lee could fit what the Diamondbacks are looking for here, but the Mets remain high on him despite his difficult major-league experience earlier this season.

The Final Word
There’s a situation in which Kelly would have been a great fit for the Mets. That’s a world where they felt more confident in either Carrasco or Syndergaard coming back at full strength as a fourth starter, and where Arizona had no qualms moving Kelly to open up a rotation spot for someone younger. Neither of those conditions exist at the moment, and thus this doesn’t really work for either side.

(Topphoto of Kyle Gibson: Aric Becker / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)